‘The Criminal Always Returns to the Crime Scene’: Testing the Theory of Rapid Recurrence of Victimization in Astana and Almaty

This analytical report examines the application of the “rapid recurrence of victimization” theory to crime forecasting in the cities of Astana and Almaty, with a focus on theft and violent offences. The study confirms the theory’s validity in the case of theft, particularly within a radius of 100 metres and within three days of the initial incident, where a significant increase in repeated incidents is observed. The estimated material damage from such crimes totalled 405 million tenge in 2023. The report also provides recommendations for enhancing crime prevention strategies and improving data analysis practices within law enforcement agencies.

Language: Russian

Keywords: criminology, rapid recurrence of victimization, crime forecasting, theft, violent crime, material damage, crime prevention